Greece and the Law of Large Numbers

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others.

In Greece's political gameplay one would think that the LLN should apply by analogy. However, much to the surprise of everyone there is no such thing as a "winning streak" installed in this game. And though one would also think that we should be able to capitalize on the political lessons of the past (which in their majority have led to the loss of sovereing rights, one way or the other) a sign of improvement and the feeling that the lesson has been learnt is still missing. May the Schwartz be with us!