Kazan-Kazan Reloaded

This expression was first heard back in April of 2013 by Mr. Erdogan during a meeting with Greek Prime Minister Samaras. Kazan-Kazan is an expression, which loosely translated into English means win/win. And from today's angle, what a generous offer this was! In diplomacy, expressions and statements bear different significance depending on timing, individual circumstances of the parties involved but also of the surrounding environment's layout. There is no question. Back then we failed to get the message. And objectively speaking back then our diplomatic senses were better trained to decipher messages. Our ability to do so today is seriously impacted by the omnipresent incompetence of our political staff. And yet, this was a grand moment of failure. In negotiation terms speaking it seems that Mr. Erdogan had proceeded to a way better calculation of Greece's BATNA (i.e. Best Alternative to Negotiating Agreement), while Mr. Samaras had put his negotiation eggs in a basket full of holes. Overly confident about the support of our traditional allies (i.e. the EU, NATO) he felt that there was plenty of good reason to avoid opening that chapter altogether.

But what has happened since? Turkey has engaged in a frenzy of military equipment purchases and co-productions, from 5th generation stealth fighters, to air defence missiles, to tanks, frigates, mobile bridges and air-carriers, as if she is preparing for the final mother of all battles, all the while Greece is still struggling with its financial programmes, with its confusing and contradicting communication internally and externally, and with its catastrophic crisis-management, which has essentially eliminated her ability to defend herself against all enemy, domestic or foreign, and which has sentenced her to eternal dependency on every level from foreign support. A country at the verge of extinction and exhaustion and at the mercy of her rather indifferent, at best, partners. With her people at the verge of absolute poverty and deprived from any form or notion of dignity. With a Government in complete delusion and on cloud 7 to 9, with its perception of reality being as distant from true events as objectively possible. And while Turkey is roaring towards every direction that she will not tolerate attitude from no one, including traditional super-powers such as the US, she has embarked on a series of provocations and military campaigns in an effort to revive the Ottoman Empire.This expansion rhetoric has received wide acceptance throughout the political spectrum of Turkey, with the opposition occasionally adopting even more aggressive positions on certain matters of Turkish foreign policy. And while this propaganda seems to be working extremely well for Turkey, a number of minor forces who are directly affected are condemned either to destruction (like the YPG in Syria) or to complete submission to the Sultan's desires (such as Greece). Turkey has activated a number of satellite countries towards which she has expressed her unconditional support with respect to any unresolved political issue they are facing with Greece, thus deploying an harmonised front of political affairs, which are a handful for any capable Government, let alone for the puppets currently running our State.

Hence, Micky-mouse countries, such as FYROM and Albania have suddenly revised their stance on a number of almost settled issues with Greece, offering essentially the required diversion to Turkey to address more serious issues, such as the blockade of drilling exercises by Cyprus and the war against the Kurds and the creation of a Kurdish State in Afrin. And it seems that Turkey is doing quite well on all these fronts it is tackling simultaneously. Even the fact that in her capacity as a NATO member-country Turkey is now purchasing S-400 missiles from Russia seems to not have any serious repercussions for her. Then why not push the limits as far as she can? What that means in effect, is that the timing of the Kazan-Kazan offer has probably run-out a long time ago and the offer is no longer on the table. Turkey's questioning of International Treaties of the past is not by chance. Turkey has grown into the arrogant construct it is today because of her leader who has shown great foresight. A man who understands that efficient policy-making includes the occasional sending of his troops to war and that resorting to violence is at times more effective and time efficient compared to engaging in lengthy negotiations with bureaucrats. Maybe his lengthly exposure and interaction with another great geopolitical chess-player has done its part and has helped Mr. Erdogan in improving his game, as well. And by absolute contrast, this country is being run by a bunch of useless and arrogant amateurs, who have become drunk by their power addiction. Which is of the worst form. It is a rather understandable human trait, if you will, to want to hold onto power, especially when the acquisition of it is the result of serial lies, the smile of fate and the trade of hope.

But hope has left this country a long time ago. My most important concern now, is what is in store for us these days by Turkey, since Kazan-Kazan appears to have been withdrawn. Is it war? Is it complete submission? Is it abandonment? Or is it the awakening to a new/old reality that we are alone out there and that it would be hoping against hope, if we expected that anyone will step-in or come to our rescue, unless that would be by weird force of alignment of some undefined interests to the interest of our mere survival.